For the last few months, since the emergence of Covid-19 pandemic, news about terror attacks appears to have slowly disappeared. Unlike other region, Southeast Asia has been spared from the imminent attacks during this pandemic period where government could take a deep breath by focusing more on its battle against the current unseen enemy. The assumption unfortunately is far from true. It is argued that the region continues to be the hotbed of terror threats. Indonesia and the Philippines remains expose to potential intermittent attacks as well as the base of regional terrorist activities.
The pandemic has forced regional governments to tighten their porous border. Malaysia’s Ops Pasir (sand operation), for instance, produces significant reduction of illegal cross border activities especially in the eastern coast of the Borneo state of Sabah. While the integrated enforcement approaches manage to fortify border control, recent developments also shown that many ISIS-affiliated member of Abu Sayyaf group (ASG) has used Sabah as its safe haven due to the intensified military operation in southern Philippines. In May this year, five suspected members of ASG were killed by the Malaysian police. One of the suspects is believed to be ASG sub-military commander, Mabar Binda, who has been in the wanted list of the Philippines government. Sabah is no stranger to various terror groups since the state has been used as a transit point between Mindanao and Sulawesi Island of Indonesia by several regional terror groups like for Jemaah Islamiyah (JI), ASG, Mujahidin Indonesia Timor (MIT) and Jamaah Anshorud Daulah (JAD).
In early March, the master mind of ASAG’s kidnap-for-ransom, Sahodjuan, is believed to be badly wounded during the gunfire between the group and the Philippines military force. He was responsible with the kidnapping of four Indonesians who were abducted near the Malaysian shores.
The ASG is not the only terror group that Manila has to face with. There is also renewed attacks by the communist guerilla group, New People’s Army (NPA). In recent July incident, the group launched grenade attacks on a police detachment in Kiamba town near General Santos City.
In Indonesia, the probability of terror attacks remains high mostly orchestrated by two terror group- MIT and JAD. The JAD’s strength lies on its strong relationship with ISIS. Although one may argue that JAD’s capability tends to be waning since the Marawi defeat, its suicide-bombing strategy remains a concern to the Indonesia authority. The group was responsible in several suicide bombing incidents in Makasar in March this year. The group is also known to be responsible in channeling ISIS money to Maute group and the jihadist faction of ASG during the Marawi siege.
The MIT, on the other hand, has shown formidable regeneration capacity after the demise of its leader, Sontoso. The group, under Ali Kalora, has viewed the Covid-19 as a blessing in disguise. Covid pandemic is considered as an effective ally in defeating the enemy. Government’s focus in managing the pandemic has given ample space for new drive of recruitment and, to re-strategize and to re-launch possible attacks against the authority.
Finally, the recent global strategic environment has given a new lifeline to regional terrorist groups. Washington’s decision to pull-out from Afghanistan has given morale booster to Southeast Asian terror groups to re-establish regional jihadi connection. American withdrawal would worsen the already fragile Afghan security. For the last few months, the Taliban already has the upper edge against the government. Its territorial control has widened, and this could signal another impending conflict in the country. It has been speculated that IS could move its base to the country yet, it can also be argued that different ideological base between ISIS and Taliban would be impossible for them to cooperate. What’s more important, however, is that Southeast Asian terror groups would have a new partner as well as alternative base for their future recruitment activities and financial sources.
[Photo credit: Internet photo]
