WILL THE RECENT U.S. LEGISLATION PROPOSING SANCTIONS ON CHINA BE GOOD FOR SOUTHEAST ASIA?

Recently, on October 19 , the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations announced a bipartisan legislation that would impose sanctions on China relating to the South China Sea dispute. The bill, announced and initiated by Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, declares the U.S. intention to impose sanctions on any “Individuals and entities that participate in Beijing’s attempts to aggressively assert its expansive maritime and territorial claims over the South and East China Seas.”

The proposed legislation would require the current U.S. president to “impose property-blocking and visa-denial sanctions on Chinese persons and entities that contribute to development projects.” Furthermore, investment or involvement by U.S. entities in projects involving sanctioned individuals or entities will also be prohibited. In his website announcement, Senator Rubio argued that China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and its armed wing remain the greatest threat to a free and open Indo-Pacific and therefore pose a serious threat to U.S. economic and national security interests.

Indeed, with the growing rivalry between U.S. and China, the South China Sea has increasingly become an important geopolitical arena. In the last few years, the U.S. has increased its own military presence in the disputed area to challenge Beijing’s excessive claims of sovereignty through the U.S. Freedom of Navigation Program (FONOPs). However, Senator Rubio asserted that, “the United States needs additional tools to confront Beijing as it continues its effort to unlawfully assert control over maritime territory in the South and East China Seas.” Based on the new legislation, the additional tools referenced by Senator Rubio appear to start with economic sanctions.

Arguably the imposition of economic sanctions on Chinese entities by the U.S. will increase the U.S.-China rivalry in the region. Moreover, it is impossible to guarantee that sanctions will effectively pressure Beijing to not provoke or escalate their presence in the disputed area.

The Global Times, a state-run media outlet operating under the auspices of the Chinese Communist Party, reported that if the proposed legislation passes the House and Senate,  Therefore, the prospects of such legislation will only generate more tension in the U.S.-China relations.

Should the legislation pass, and sanctions be imposed on Chinese entities, how will other Southeast Asian states react?. Indeed, in the last few years,South China Sea claimant states such as Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia, and Brunei have suffered from the aggressive behavior of China’s PLA in the South China Sea. There have been many reported incidents of the PLA interfering with law enforcement or fisherman from adjacent claimant states. Therefore, assurances from Beijing that it will not escalate such provocations and threaten claimant states’ entities in the disputed area will be critical. However, the common interest of all ASEAN member states is the preservation of peace and security in the disputed area. Hence, the prospects of increasing tension between the U.S. and China will not be welcomed by Southeast Asian states. On many occasions, the relevant ASEAN member states have reiterated their positions and refusal to take a side between the U.S. and China; opting to instead remain neutral in this geopolitical contest.

While a direct U.S. military presence in the disputed area would create a huge risk to escalating the rift into open war, economic sanctions still apply pressure on Beijing without directly confronting it in the South China Sea. Even though this might be an attractive short-term strategy, it should not be accepted as an effective policy as it may antagonise China to retaliate and hence only serve to deepen the conflict.

What then is more preferable as a strategic long-term strategy to address Chinese aggression in the South China Sea? The U.S. should opt for an internalisation mechanism for China to assure peace and security in the disputed area, with the first logical step being finalising negotiations around a Code of Conduct. The aim of the current Code of Conduct being negotiated is to elicit voluntary compliance to established principles of international law by China.

That being said, the recently introduced U.S. legislation might convince China to show restraint in the South China Sea and thus reduce the risk of military confrontation. However, the passage of the bill carries risk of retaliation from China which will of course likely ratchet up the intensity of rivalry between the U.S. and China in the short-term. Therefore, sanctions may not be a sound long-term policy option for dealing with China in the South China Sea. The most logical step for a long-term policy to maintain peace and security in the disputed area remains the Code of Conduct.

[Photo credit: Reuters]

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