Malaysia experienced a shocking incident on 31 May 2021. China’s People Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) flew 16 multi role strategic airlifters, consisting of Ilyushin Il-76 and Xian Y-20 aircraft, over Malaysia’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) waters and the South Luconia Shoals (Beting Pattingi Ali), and reached about 60 miles off Sarawak. The Royal Malaysian Air Force (RMAF) scrambled Hawk 208 light fighter jets to intercept after repeated attempts by air controllers requesting for identification and purpose of the PLAAF flight went unanswered. The PLAAF flight turned back after the RMAF light fighters intercepted them. According to the Royal Malaysian Air Force (RMAF), the squadron-sized PLAAF aircraft flew in tactical formation over the maritime waters claimed by China as part of its “nine-dash line” claim of almost the whole of South China Sea.
So far, the real intention of this flight is not known but may be plausibly an operation by PLAAF to test Malaysia’s air defence systems and response time as well as gathering electronic intelligence. If China continues such aerial incursions, the RMAF may incur heavy costs to intercept them each time. This large airborne flight may plausibly indicate that China may also be planning to assert its South China Sea claims by using air power in the future.
For years, China has been using surface maritime means to enforce its claims such as coast guard vessels, fishing boats, armed maritime militia and even mobile oil rigs. China has been consistently showing its inventiveness in asserting its maritime claims as demonstrated in 2014 when China placed a mobile oil rig in near Paracel Islands sparking a tense stand-off between Vietnam and China, and the establishment of ‘fishermen outposts’ in reefs/islands in international waters of the South China Sea. China has also covertly built an artificial island complete with a large airstrip on Fiery Cross Reef in 2015. The artificial island is now hosting radars, sensors, and possibly air defence systems and land-based anti-ship missiles.
However, because of such aggressive island-grabbing operations have gained substantial attention, similar operations are more difficult to conduct now because other South China Sea littoral states are more vigilant to these threats. For example, on the 7th of March this year, a large armada of more than 200 Chinese fishing boats docked on Whitsun Reef (or known as the Julian Felipe Reef by the Philippines) close to the western Philippine province of Palawan in the South China Sea. Although the real intention of the docking is not clear (the Chinese claimed they were sheltering from a storm), this latest feat by China has resulted in vigorous responses from the Philippines government including sending South Korean-made FA-50 light combat aircraft to watch these fishing boats and strong protests from numerous Filipino politicians and officials. The vivacious response by the Philippines demonstrated that typical Chinese assertive maritime operations can be met with strong resistance. The docked fishing boats subsequently dispersed but remained in Philippines-claimed waters. The increasing difficulties in using surface maritime operations may have made the potential use of airborne operations to occupy islands and reefs an alluring prospect.
For example, in a hypothetical scenario taking a leaf out of John W. Hackett’s best-selling 1978 book hypothesizing the Third World War, a fictional Country X today wants to claim large parts of the South China Sea and its islands. Country X can use aircraft to transport para-marines (or navy special forces personnel) and equipment in a large coordinated airborne assault operation. Country X with 18 aircraft, can aim to drop para-marines, special forces personnel and supporting equipment at 5 locations by assigning 3 aircraft per target area with an airborne command-and-control aircraft providing air control and coordination for the air operation, and two electronic warfare aircraft to monitor potential opponents’ air activities and electronic jamming of surveillance radars. A company sized para-marine unit and supporting special forces personnel can be air dropped at 5 different South China Sea islands. The para-marines and special forces personnel may parachute and land on the island or in the waters nearby (but may be more hazardous as they need to swim to the islands) and occupy the islands.
Once securing the islands, other heavier weapons and equipment can be air dropped by subsequent supporting flights. The company-sized para-marines armed with man-portable air-defence systems (MANPADS), mortars and anti-tank guided weapons (ATGW) can be used to deter aircraft and small patrol boats from flying or sailing too close to monitor them or attempt to remove them. As more heavy weapons are deployed in these occupied islands, longer range surface-to-air missiles (SAM) and land-based anti-ship missiles, howitzers and rocket artillery may be used to defend these islands.
It will be difficult to remove Country X para-marines from the occupied islands. The other claimant states, most likely, won’t be able to do anything drastic such as using military power to forcibly remove these para-marines from the occupied islands for fear of triggering a larger armed conflict with Country X. Other major powers with interests in maintaining the rule-of-law in the South China Sea may also find it hard to dislodge Country X’s occupations short of using armed violence which may escalate into a bigger war with more serious and tragic consequences. The most likely resultant impact will be a host of angry protests from a number of claimant states and major powers. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) may lodge complaints but will not be able to act as it cannot reach a consensus as some of the ASEAN members have no interest in the South China Sea with a handful having close relationships with Country X.
The airborne dimension of rapid deployment and surprise assault tactics may decisively give Country X the fait accompli in occupying the contested South China Sea islands. This is just a hypothetical scenario but the potential of it becoming a reality is chilling.
[Photo credit: Royal Malaysian Airforce]
